THE AGE OF DISRUPTION

THE AGE OF DISRUPTION

Counterpoint Mid-Year Investment Outlook Update


Get the insights you need to make better investment choices. Our experts share their five market predictions for the next six months and beyond.
Risks and opportunities in a changing world


While the war in Ukraine, Covid-19 and Fed tightening are making the outlook more uncertain, we believe our moderate risk-on positioning remains tactically appropriate as the initial shock is now behind us. Longer term, the investment implications of a changing world are profound.
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It’s important to remain focused on the long term and avoid over-reacting to short-term news. Portfolios should be adjusted in
a measured way to the evolving environment."

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Disruption across companies and sectors
The global outlook is more uncertain as markets confront a stagflationary shock, lowering economic and earnings growth and raising inflation. Energy and food prices are high, supply chains and trade flows disrupted, financial conditions tighter, and business and consumer confidence lower.
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Disruption across companies and sectors
Why we think the rate rise won’t rock the boat
Why we think the rate rise won’t rock the boat
All this has a macro counterpart, too. Inflation may start slowing from high levels over the next few months as demand moderates from super-strong rates to more normal ones, supply is gradually repaired, the monetary stance gets back to neutral, the US fiscal impulse has already waned and the comparison with the corresponding period of the previous year mechanically pushes inflation lower – if there are no further price shocks.
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What to make of inflation
Currency-wise, this suggests a fairly neutral view on the US dollar and sterling, as we think the euro – eventually – will probably recover somewhat, as the ECB slowly starts to normalise interest rates. We still expect a weak Swiss franc and Japanese yen, and we’re fairly neutral on emerging market currencies.
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What to make of inflation
Our five conviction calls
Our experts have identified five market trends that we believe will dominate the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond. Download the report to get the full insights.
Companies

When the going gets tough

When the future looks increasingly uncertain, investing in quality growth companies
with financial flexibility is our preferred strategy.

Sectors

Reshoring, restoring, reassuring

Resilience will be an important differentiator as companies and governments
continue to focus on addressing supply-side disruptions.

The economy

Learning to live with inflation

The transitions to more local supply chains and a green economy are inflationary
but beyond central bank control, so policymakers are unlikely to hike rates aggressively.

Energy

Renewable and reliable

The war in Ukraine could and should accelerate investment in cleantech.
Reducing reliance on fossil fuels can mitigate geopolitical risks.

Technology

Powering through thick and thin

Technology improvements across all themes are speeding up every year,
and shocks like Covid-19 and the Russia/Ukraine war can accelerate disruption.

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How we are moving portfolios
See how our portfolios are developing for 2022. In this section we discuss our approach for strategic and tactical asset allocation.
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How we are moving portfolios
Translating our views into portfolio strategy
Translating our views into portfolio strategy
Creating a globally diversified investment strategy implemented through best-in-class vehicles to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns.
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Investing puts your capital at risk.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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